Has Bitcoin Topped for This Market Cycle? Insights from Crypto Expert Peter Brandt
Crypto expert Peter Brandt has made a bold claim that the Bitcoin top for this market cycle may have already been reached. Brandt based his conclusion on his “exponential decay” thesis, which he believes could actually be beneficial for the Bitcoin ecosystem.
According to Brandt, historical data suggests that Bitcoin’s price has peaked, with the percentage gain decreasing in each subsequent bull cycle. For example, between 2015 and 2017, Bitcoin saw a 122x increase from its market low to market high, which was only 21.3% of the price gain in the previous cycle between 2011 and 2013.
Similarly, between 2018 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced a 22x increase from its market low to market high, representing just 18% of the price increase from the previous cycle. Brandt predicts that this trend will continue, with Bitcoin likely to see only 20% of the price gain recorded in the previous cycle.
Based on his analysis, Brandt suggests that Bitcoin may have already hit its market high for this cycle at $72,723, just shy of its new all-time high of $73,750. Despite the recent Bitcoin halving, which historically leads to significant price gains, Brandt believes there is a 25% chance that Bitcoin has already topped this cycle.
If Bitcoin has indeed peaked, Brandt anticipates a drop to the mid $30,000 range or its 2021 lows. However, he views this potential decline as a bullish long-term development for Bitcoin. From a classical charting perspective, Brandt believes Bitcoin is still poised for major parabolic moves to the upside, even if they do not materialize immediately.
Brandt also shared a chart illustrating what Bitcoin’s price action could look like in the future, with the potential for the cryptocurrency to rally above $100,000. He compared Bitcoin’s potential trajectory to that of Gold from August 2020 to March 2024, suggesting that Bitcoin could soon surpass Gold in terms of value.
While Brandt’s prediction may raise concerns among Bitcoin investors, he remains optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s long-term prospects. Whether Bitcoin has truly topped for this cycle remains to be seen, but Brandt’s analysis provides valuable insights into the potential future price movements of the leading cryptocurrency.
