Bitcoin’s Trajectory Towards the 2028 Halving: Predictions of Reduced Volatility and Increased Institutional Engagement
In a recent investor note, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has provided a bold outlook on Bitcoin’s future leading up to the 2028 halving, predicting a significant decrease in volatility and increased institutional investor engagement.
Hougan’s predictions come on the heels of Bitcoin’s recent surge to a new all-time high just weeks before the 2024 halving, signaling a trend that he believes will continue post-halving and drive Bitcoin’s price to new heights. With Bitcoin’s price history showing dramatic escalation since its humble $13 valuation at the time of its first halving in 2012, Hougan remains confident in his previous price predictions, stating that Bitcoin is still on track to hit $250,000 in the coming years.
One of the key factors driving this growth, according to Hougan, is the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen remarkable performance in their first few months of trading. These ETFs have played a crucial role in attracting a new wave of institutional investors, such as financial advisors and large financial entities, who bring a more disciplined approach to the market.
Hougan emphasized the stabilizing impact of institutional investors on Bitcoin’s volatility, predicting a 50% reduction by the next halving. He noted that these investors tend to employ strategic rebalancing and steady investments, contrasting with the speculative actions of retail investors that have characterized Bitcoin trading in the past.
Looking ahead to 2028, Hougan envisions Bitcoin becoming a standard component in diversified investment portfolios, with allocations potentially exceeding 5%. He predicts that institutional capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs could surpass $200 billion, further solidifying Bitcoin’s position as a mainstream financial asset.
While Hougan’s outlook is optimistic, he also acknowledges the risks associated with crypto investments, such as market volatility and regulatory uncertainties. Nevertheless, he paints a picture of a future where Bitcoin achieves widespread institutional adoption and acceptance, fundamentally altering its market trends and perception by the time of the 2028 halving.
